With the approval of Ether (ETH) spot ETFs, the crypto community is excited about which asset might be next. Experts have different opinions on the top contenders. Solana, Dogecoin, XRP, and Litecoin are the leading possibilities.
| Crypto | Likelihood | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Solana | High | Strong interest from investors; regulatory uncertainty |
| Dogecoin | Medium | Possible earlier approval due to futures market readiness |
| Litecoin | Medium | Similar to Dogecoin; futures market readiness |
| XRP | Variable | Dependent on lawsuit outcome and regulatory market status |
Factors Affecting Approval
1. Regulatory Status:
- The SEC’s view on whether crypto is a security is crucial.
- Ongoing lawsuits and regulatory actions impact the likelihood of approval.
2. Futures Market
- A regulated and liquid futures market is essential.
- The CFTC’s involvement in regulating futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum paved the way for their ETFs.
3. Investor Demand:
- High demand from investors can influence the speed and likelihood of approval.
- Solana has significant interest but faces regulatory hurdles.
4. Legal Outcomes:
- The outcome of lawsuits, particularly for XRP, can determine the feasibility of an ETF.
- If XRP is not classified as a security, it may pave the way for its ETF.
Joe McCann, founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric, believes Solana is the most likely candidate. “I think Solana is probably going to be next,” McCann said on the latest episode of Bits + Bips. Despite regulatory uncertainties, Solana has attracted significant interest from both the crypto community and traditional finance sectors. Many investors view Solana as a promising option, especially for those who missed out on the Ethereum boom.
However, not everyone agrees. Although he acknowledges the high demand for SOL, James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that Dogecoin or Litecoin could have better chances.
Noting that the SEC had only ever hinted that it viewed ETH as a security, he tweeted, “Those lawsuits against COIN and Kraken and others flat out say ‘Solana is a security’ lol. Which could very easily make this a very rocky road.”
Solana was named as a security by the SEC in its lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance.US.
Seyffart stressed how vital a regulated futures market is for the SEC when deciding on ETF approvals. “I don’t expect Solana anytime soon,” he remarked, suggesting Dogecoin or Litecoin might come first. He explained that the SEC prefers assets with a well-established and regulated futures market, which Dogecoin and Litecoin could have before Solana.
The Importance of Futures Markets and Legal Status
The futures markets play a crucial role in this conversation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees the futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which played a significant part in getting their ETFs approved. Solana’s approval is uncertain without a comparable market.
Alex Kruger of Asgard sees potential for Solana and Dogecoin but remains cautious. The legal status of XRP could impact its ETF prospects, depending on lawsuit outcomes. If XRP isn’t labeled a security, its ETF chances increase with a regulated market.
Conclusion
With Ether ETFs getting the green light, the focus shifts to which crypto might be next. While Solana appears to be a strong candidate, regulatory uncertainties and the importance of a regulated futures market mean Dogecoin or Litecoin might see approval sooner.
The outcome of legal battles, particularly for XRP, will also play a crucial role in determining the next crypto ETF approval. The race is on, and the crypto community is watching closely.
Disclaimer
FAQ
The approval of a cryptocurrency ETF depends on regulatory status, the presence of a regulated and liquid futures market, investor demand, and the outcome of ongoing legal battles.
Solana is seen as a strong candidate due to significant investor interest and its potential for high returns. However, regulatory uncertainties pose a challenge.
A regulated and liquid futures market is crucial for ETF approval. The CFTC's regulation of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets facilitated their ETF approvals.
